effect of business cycles

Topics: Business cycle, Economic growth, Macroeconomics Pages: 54 (10076 words) Published: February 12, 2014
Banco Central de Chile
Documentos de Trabajo
Central Bank of Chile
Working Papers
N° 156
Mayo 2002

THE EFFECTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES
ON GROWTH

Antonio Fatás

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Documento de Trabajo
N° 156

Working Paper
N° 156

THE EFFECTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES ON GROWTH
Antonio Fatás
INSEAD
Centre for Economic Policy Research

Resumen
Este artículo estudia la relación entre ciclos económicos y tasas de crecimiento de largo plazo. Presentamos evidencia empírica que revela interesantes y significativas relaciones entre ciclos y crecimiento. Mostramos que los ciclos económicos no pueden ser considerados como desviaciones temporales de una tendencia y que hay una importante correlación positiva entre persistencia de fluctuaciones de corto plazo y tasas de crecimiento de largo plazo. Un modelo simple de crecimiento endógeno en el que los ciclos económicos afectan el crecimiento puede replicar fácilmente esta correlación. Luego estudiamos la relación entre volatilidad y crecimiento. Mostramos que países con más fluctuaciones volátiles presentan menores tasas de crecimiento de largo plazo. Además encontramos evidencia de que existen no linealidades en esta relación. El efecto de los ciclos económicos en el crecimiento es mucho mayor en países pobres o en países con menor grado de desarrollo financiero.

Abstract
This paper studies the link between...

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