A PROJECT REPORT ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR INDIA COMPARED TO CHINA, BRAZIL AND RUSSIA.
Submitted to : proff.swahashome. SUMBITTEB AT:ibs “Mumbai”
Date of submission:22 February 2012.
FLOW OF CONTENT:-
MACROECONOMIC INDICATOR/BUSINESS INDICATOR
Macroeconomic indicator is a statistics about the economy. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries. Examples: unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation), Consumer Leverage Ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, Gross Domestic Product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, stock market prices, money supply changes. United States Census Bureau and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis are producers of economic indicators. Classification of macroeconomic indicators n the basis of time:- On the basis of time economic indicators can be classified into three groups according to their usual timing in relation to the business cycle, those are as follows. (1) leading indicators,
(2) lagging indicators,
(3) and coincident indicators.
(1)Leading indicators:-A short term predictor of economy.
Leading indicators are those indicators that usually changes before the economy as a whole change. They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Examples of leading indicators:-
(a) Stock market returns.
(b) the index of consumer expectations.
(c) building permits,
(d) and the money supply.
The 10 Components of Leading Indicators:-
1. Average weekly hours (manufacturing) — Adjustments to the working hours of existing employees are usually made in advance of new hires or layoffs, which is why the measure of average weekly hours is a leading indicator for changes in unemployment. 2. Average weekly jobless claims for unemployment insurance — The CB reverses the value of this component from positive to negative because a positive reading indicates a loss in jobs. The initial jobless-claims data is more sensitive to business conditions than other measures of unemployment. 3. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials — this component is considered a leading indicator because increases in new orders for consumer goods and materials usually mean positive changes in actual production. The new orders decrease inventory and contribute to unfilled orders, a precursor to future revenue. 4. Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index) — This component measures the time it takes to deliver orders to industrial companies. Vendor performance leads the business cycle because an increase in delivery time can indicate rising demand for manufacturing supplies. Vendor performance is measured by a monthly survey from the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM). This diffusion index measures one-half of the respondents reporting no change and all respondents reporting slower deliveries. 5. Manufacturers' new orders for non-defence capital goods — As stated above, new orders lead the business cycle because increases in orders usually mean positive changes in actual production and perhaps rising demand. This measure is the producer's counterpart of new orders for consumer goods/materials component. 6. Building permits for new private housing units.
7. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index — The S&P 500 is considered a...
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